Written by our guest contributor and prolific Reddit contributor, Solidus.
Three core elements currently prevent the United States from becoming an active autocracy or dictatorship under Donald Trump, and his administration is actively working to undermine each one:
1. Independent Judiciary
Current Status:
Judges in the U.S. still make binding decisions regarding legal adherence, ideally in an impartial manner. The Supreme Court independently exercises judicial review, serving as the final arbiter of constitutionality.
Trump’s Past Actions: Trump has made concerted efforts to intimidate prominent law firms and judges, including the highly public arrest of Judge Hannah Dugan. He has tweeted statements like “he who saves his country breaks no laws” and made other remarks implying that the executive branch should not be bound by laws. He publicly criticizes Supreme Court justices he disagrees with (e.g., Barrett) and has generally spoken about impeaching judges. He also attempted to insert a clause into a debated tax bill that would remove enforcement for judicial injunctions, which have been a significant check on his administration’s overreach.
Trump’s Future Actions: While Senator Grassley removed the injunction language from the tax bill, he replaced it with a clause that could have a chilling effect (simplified, it’s akin to unlimited indemnity for suing the federal government under certain circumstances). Expect mounting pressure on the courts and increased efforts to intimidate specific justices. He will likely attempt judicial impeachments at some point, along with more arrests if he can. Eventually, expect him to target non-cooperative Supreme Court justices.
2. Democracy
Current Status:
The U.S. remains a democracy as long as voters retain the power to choose their elected leaders.
Trump’s Past Actions: The “big lie” from 2019 and the subsequent events, culminating in the January 6th Capitol invasion, continue to cast a long shadow. He still repeats this lie and will soon appoint a special prosecutor to investigate the “fraud” from that election, further laying the groundwork for impugning the results of future elections that don’t favor him. He has corrupted the Republican Party and maintains an iron grip on its members of Congress.
Trump’s Future Actions: Trump’s unfavorable ratings remain stubbornly high, and his current poll numbers are sinking to new lows. Although polls are volatile and Democrats also poll low, Trump cannot risk a loss in the 2026 midterms derailing his authoritarian project. Expect his team to work around the clock on various schemes to tip the balance in their favor in 2026. The special prosecutor’s investigation will be part of this strategy; by claiming to expose 2020 fraud, he will groom the public into accepting charges of fraud in 2026. Exactly how he will interfere in state-run elections is difficult to say, but it may involve using troops in cities with high Democratic turnout, voter intimidation, or something similar to 2019 where he simply annuls legitimate electors in favor of his own slate. Also, expect Trump to run again in 2028 and begin making tortured legal arguments to justify it.
3. Federalism
Current Status:
States still retain considerable autonomy under the country’s governing framework and possess numerous reserved powers, including oversight of national elections within their jurisdiction.
Trump’s Past Actions: He seized control of California’s National Guard and deployed them alongside Marines to patrol Los Angeles. He has threatened to withhold federal funding from “blue” states and enforce laws differently between states.
Trump’s Future Actions: Expect more of the same—a lot more leveraging of federal funding to coerce obedience from states, along with the deployment of more troops, if he can. A significant hurdle here is the courts; they are unlikely to view preferential treatment of some states over others favorably, and they have already ruled that Trump’s nationalization of the California State Guard was illegal (this case is believed to be on appeal). Expect Trump to use any means necessary to get a friendly governor installed in Pennsylvania.
Conclusion:
Democracy is hanging by a thread, with innumerable norms and other constraints on the presidency already eroded. Republicans obey him with minimal friction, the executive branch is being purged, and incompetent “yes men” are being appointed to high offices in the civil service and military. He openly embraces the trappings of dictators (e.g., military parades) and befriends them abroad while alienating our traditional democratic allies. Between him and his ambition, only these three things stand in the way. We can chart the country’s progression into dictatorship by watching his predictable actions to dismantle them.
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